International travel to the United States is expected to improve in 2026, but the latest official forecast shows the recovery remains fragile even with the FIFA World Cup giving the market a major event boost.
The National Travel and Tourism Office, part of the U.S. Department of Commerce's International Trade Administration, now projects 70.5 million international visits to the United States in 2026. That would be a 3.2% increase from 68.3 million visits in 2025, when inbound travel fell sharply from 72.3 million in 2024.
For U.S. hotels, airports, restaurants, attractions and travel sellers, the numbers point to a mixed summer story. More visitors are expected, but the United States is still forecast to welcome fewer international travelers than it did two years earlier, and far fewer than the pre-pandemic peak. That means major gateways and destination businesses may get relief from World Cup demand without seeing a full return to normal inbound spending patterns.
Why the forecast matters now
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico, is expected to support inbound travel during June and July. NTTO says the tournament is part of the reason arrivals should rise this year, with total international visitation projected to climb from 68.3 million in 2025 to 70.5 million in 2026.
But the rebound starts from a weakened base. According to the same official forecast, international visitation fell 5.5% in 2025, marking the first annual decline since 2020. The Congressional Research Service recently summarized the scale of the decline, noting that 2025 visits were below 2024 levels and still short of the record 79.4 million international visitors recorded in 2018.
That gap is commercially important because international visitors tend to spend heavily on lodging, dining, shopping, attractions, local transportation and domestic air connections. A modest rebound can help major cities, but it does not erase the lost demand that hotels, restaurants and visitor bureaus felt in 2025.
Canada remains the clearest warning sign
Canada is the largest inbound source market for the United States, and it is also where the weakness is most visible. The Congressional Research Service cited Commerce Department data showing Canadian arrivals fell 20.9% in 2025, the steepest decline among the top 20 source markets. NTTO now expects 16.6 million Canadian visitors in 2026, which would be higher than last year but still nearly 4 million below the levels seen in both 2023 and 2024.
That matters far beyond border towns. Canadian travelers are important to Florida, Las Vegas, New York, California, Arizona, theme-park markets, cruise ports and warm-weather winter destinations. A slow Canadian recovery can therefore show up in hotel occupancy, restaurant covers, attraction attendance, car rentals and air demand across multiple regions.
Mexico is a brighter part of the forecast. NTTO expects 19 million visitors from Mexico in 2026, up from 2025 and roughly matching one of the strongest years on record for that market. Overseas visitation, which excludes Canada and Mexico, is projected to rise only modestly to 34.8 million in 2026, still below the 2024 level and nearly 6 million under the 2019 record.
Travel businesses should not treat the World Cup as a full recovery
The World Cup will create intense demand around match cities, peak arrival dates and high-profile fan corridors. That should benefit U.S. gateways such as New York JFK, Los Angeles International Airport, Miami International Airport, Atlanta and Las Vegas, along with domestic connecting airports and regional destinations that can convert tournament trips into longer vacations.
Still, the forecast suggests the industry should plan for uneven gains rather than a broad automatic boom. Demand may cluster around match schedules, major cities and higher-income travelers, while some international visitors continue to weigh visa requirements, entry concerns, exchange rates, airfare, hotel pricing and perceptions of the United States against other destinations.
Restaurants are already watching the trend closely. The National Restaurant Association, using NTTO projections, said international arrivals should rebound this year but remain well below the pre-pandemic peak. It also noted that tourism is a meaningful source of restaurant demand, with travelers and visitors accounting for a large share of sales in many dining segments.
Brand USA is trying to rebuild confidence
The weaker inbound backdrop has also shaped destination marketing. Brand USA, the national destination marketing organization, launched new initiatives this month under its America the Beautiful platform, including Get Facts. Get Going., an effort designed to give international travelers clearer information on U.S. visa and entry policies, fees and trip-planning questions.
The timing is deliberate. A travel market can lose bookings not only because of formal restrictions, but also because of confusion, long planning timelines or uncertainty about the arrival experience. For tour operators, travel advisors and meetings planners selling the United States abroad, clear information can help reduce friction, especially for travelers deciding whether to combine a World Cup trip with a broader U.S. vacation.
But marketing alone may not solve every challenge. Recent industry analysis has pointed to multiple headwinds for inbound travel, including traveler sentiment in key source markets, visa-processing issues, cost concerns and competition from other countries that are also investing heavily in tourism promotion.
What it means for U.S. travelers and the market
For American travelers, weaker inbound demand can cut both ways. In some markets, fewer international visitors may leave more hotel availability outside event periods. In World Cup cities, however, international demand may still create sharp price spikes around matches, fan events and peak travel dates.
For travel companies, the more important message is that 2026 should be managed as a segmented market. World Cup weeks, gateway cities and Mexico-linked demand may outperform, while some Canadian and long-haul overseas segments recover more slowly. Hotels, airlines, attractions and ground transportation providers that depend on international guests may need more targeted promotions, flexible inventory planning and clearer communication around entry and local logistics.
NTTO's longer-range forecast is more optimistic, projecting total international visitation to reach 74.1 million in 2027, 78.7 million in 2028 and a new high of 82.3 million in 2029. For now, though, the immediate story is more cautious: the United States is expected to regain some visitors in 2026, but the World Cup lift may not be enough to close the inbound travel gap.