The United States is still expected to gain international visitors in 2026, but the latest federal forecast points to a much slower recovery than the travel industry was counting on a year ago, even with the FIFA World Cup set to bring global attention to U.S. host cities.
The National Travel and Tourism Office, part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, now projects total international visitation to the United States will rise 3.2% in 2026, from 68.3 million visitors in 2025 to about 70.5 million. That is growth, but it is a far more cautious outlook than the March 2025 NTTO forecast, which had expected 77.1 million international arrivals in 2025 and 85 million in 2026.
For hotels, airports, tour operators, destination marketers and travel sellers, the change matters because it reframes 2026 as a recovery year rather than a full rebound year. The World Cup may still create intense demand around specific match windows and gateways, but the national picture suggests that international travel to the U.S. will remain uneven and below the path previously expected.
What changed in the latest forecast
NTTO’s April 2026 spring forecast says international visitation should grow from 68.3 million in 2025 to 85.2 million by 2030. The agency expects an all-time high in 2029, when arrivals are projected to reach 82.3 million, followed by 85.2 million in 2030.
The near-term story is more subdued. The 2026 forecast of 70.5 million visitors is only about 2.2 million higher than the 2025 base year. It also leaves the U.S. well short of the 2026 figure projected in last year’s forecast, when NTTO expected the country to surpass its pre-pandemic 2019 visitation level by reaching 85 million international arrivals.
Recent reporting on the updated numbers has highlighted the scale of the reset: 2025 came in with roughly four million fewer foreign visitors than 2024, while international visitor spending fell by more than $8 billion after adjustments, according to an Independent report citing NTTO data. The new federal forecast does not frame the 2026 market as a collapse, but it does suggest that demand will rebuild more gradually than earlier official expectations implied.
World Cup demand will help, but it may not lift every market equally
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is one reason NTTO still expects inbound growth next year. The tournament, co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, should stimulate cross-border travel, group movement, hotel bookings and airline demand around U.S. host cities.
But the forecast also shows that the World Cup effect is not expected to erase all weakness in the inbound market. NTTO projects arrivals from Mexico to rise 5.8% in 2026 and Canadian visitation to increase 3.8%. Brazil, another soccer-intensive market, is also forecast to grow 5.8% next year.
Other major source markets look more mixed. The United Kingdom is projected to grow 3.5% in 2026, Germany 2.1%, Japan 4.5% and China 3.5%. India, one of the fastest-growing U.S. inbound markets in recent years, is forecast to contract 4.1% in 2026 before returning to growth in 2027. France is expected to dip 1% in 2026 before improving later in the forecast period.
That split is important for U.S. travel businesses. A World Cup surge can fill rooms, flights and vehicles in match cities during high-demand periods, but it does not automatically solve softer demand from every long-haul market, nor does it guarantee that non-host destinations will benefit evenly.
What it means for U.S. airports and travel planning
Major international gateways are likely to feel the clearest operational impact. Travelers moving through airports such as New York JFK, Los Angeles International, Miami International and Atlanta may see sharp peaks tied to match schedules, international arrivals banks and connecting traffic, even if national inbound growth remains modest.
For travelers, the practical takeaway is to treat 2026 as a year of concentrated demand rather than uniformly busy demand. Airfare, hotel rates and rental-car availability may spike around World Cup dates, host cities and gateway airports, while other markets could remain more price-sensitive. Booking windows, cancellation flexibility and airport buffer time will matter more than the headline national growth rate.
For travel companies, the forecast argues for a more targeted strategy. Destinations with direct links to World Cup itineraries, strong air service, large immigrant and diaspora communities, or appeal to travelers from Mexico, Canada, Brazil, the U.K. and Japan may have a clearer growth opportunity. Markets that rely heavily on slower-recovering long-haul demand may need sharper pricing, stronger international messaging and easier trip-planning tools to convert interest into bookings.
A cautious rebound for America’s visitor economy
The U.S. remains one of the world’s most important travel markets, and NTTO still expects international arrivals to climb every year from 2026 through 2030. That longer-term outlook is positive for airlines, hotels, attractions and local economies that depend on visitors from abroad.
The fresh forecast, however, lowers the temperature on expectations for the immediate future. The combination of a weaker 2025 base, only modest projected growth in 2026 and uneven source-market performance means the travel industry should not assume that the World Cup alone will restore the inbound market to its earlier trajectory.
The better reading is more nuanced: 2026 should bring visible travel peaks, valuable international exposure and stronger demand in selected corridors, but the broader U.S. inbound recovery is still fragile. For American travel businesses, that makes reliability, pricing discipline and a welcoming arrival experience just as important as the tournament itself.