U.S. Hotel Demand Is Beating Forecasts as Travelers Stay Closer to Home

Fresh hotel-market data points to a stronger-than-expected year for U.S. lodging, with domestic travelers, convention calendars and major events helping hotels outperform earlier forecasts. For American travelers, the signal is practical: the same demand that is keeping U.S. hotels healthy may also keep room rates firm in popular domestic markets through summer and into the fall meeting season.

HVS said in its June U.S. Market Pulse, published June 29, that national revenue per available room, or RevPAR, rose 4.9% in the trailing 28-day period ending June 13, based on STR/CoStar data. May RevPAR was up 4.0%, and HVS now expects U.S. hotel RevPAR growth of 3.0% for 2026, with the possibility of an upward revision if positive demand signals continue.

The update follows CoStar and Tourism Economics’ Q2 forecast assumptions, which said the first four-plus months of 2026 beat projections and lifted the U.S. RevPAR growth forecast to 2.8%. CoStar also reported that year-to-date U.S. hotel demand increased 2.0% through April, with group demand growing 2.7% from February through April and Q1 RevPAR reaching a record high.

Why hotels are outperforming

The strength is not coming from one source. HVS pointed to several overlapping drivers: U.S. travelers choosing stateside destinations amid international conflict and perceived travel risks, renewed leisure trips after some postponed travel in 2025, healthier spring convention calendars, and market-specific boosts in places such as Minneapolis and the Bay Area.

That mix matters because it shows domestic hotel demand is broadening beyond one classic vacation pattern. Leisure trips are still important, but convention travel, business recovery, shoulder-night demand and event-driven stays are also helping fill rooms. CoStar noted that Sunday and Thursday performance has been solid, a sign that demand is not limited to pure weekend leisure travel.

The pattern is also uneven by hotel tier. HVS said luxury, upper-upscale and upscale categories are benefiting strongly, including many resorts. CoStar’s Q2 assumptions similarly pointed to average daily rate growth being concentrated in the upper tiers, while lower-end properties continue to face more rate pressure from customers who are more exposed to inflation.

What this means for U.S. travelers

For travelers, a stronger hotel market usually means less room for last-minute bargains in high-demand destinations. Families planning summer vacations, business travelers attending fall events, and travelers using airport hotels before early departures should expect more variation by date, market and property tier.

The key practical move is to shop earlier around event-heavy windows. Citywide conventions, major sports events, concerts, cruise embarkation days and school-holiday weekends can all push rates higher even when a destination does not feel crowded in the traditional leisure sense. Travelers comparing airport-area stays should check both flight timing and room availability together, especially in gateway markets such as San Francisco, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Orlando, Las Vegas and Boston Logan.

Airport hotels may be particularly useful when flight schedules are early, weather risk is high, or a traveler is trying to protect a cruise, tour or international connection. Odyssey travelers using Boston can also compare options through the site’s Boston Logan airport hotels guide when an overnight near the terminal makes more sense than a same-day airport transfer.

The market is stronger, but not simple

The hotel recovery is not risk-free. HVS described transactions as still slow and steady, with uncertainty continuing to influence buyer and seller expectations. CoStar’s forecast also framed the outlook as complex, citing macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical pressure and development constraints. In other words, strong operating performance does not mean every hotel owner, brand or market is experiencing the same easy recovery.

Supply is another reason demand gains may show up in pricing. CoStar said 2026 supply expectations were pulled back, and while the pipeline remains large, the share of rooms actually under construction is low by recent historical standards. When new room supply is limited, a demand rebound can translate more directly into higher occupancy and rate strength in popular markets.

Major events could add another layer. CoStar said summer performance should get help from the FIFA World Cup, while America 250 events are expected to create more localized benefits. HVS also pointed to the possibility of a strong fall convention season if the spring pattern carries forward into September through November.

A domestic-demand signal for the travel industry

For travel agencies, tour operators and destination marketers, the new data suggests that U.S. travelers are not abandoning trips in a complicated economic and geopolitical environment. Instead, many appear to be recalibrating: choosing domestic destinations, timing trips around events, favoring higher-quality stays when budgets allow, and using hotels as part of a more controlled travel plan.

That is a useful signal for the broader U.S. travel market. Airlines may still face fuel, capacity and schedule pressures, and consumers remain price-sensitive. But the hotel data shows that demand has not disappeared. It has shifted toward trips that feel manageable, familiar and easier to execute.

The bottom line for travelers is straightforward: domestic trips may feel safer and simpler than some long-haul alternatives this year, but they are not automatically cheaper. With U.S. hotels outperforming forecasts, the best value will likely come from flexible dates, early booking, careful comparison across nearby markets and a realistic view of how conventions, concerts and holiday peaks can change the price of a room.